Maharashtra’s political landscape is undergoing a significant transformation as the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance—comprising the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena faction, and Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP)—readies itself to form the next government following a resounding victory in the state assembly elections. With 230 out of 288 seats under its belt, including 132 seats won solely by the BJP, the alliance’s electoral success has paved the way for a new government under the probable leadership of Devendra Fadnavis.
As the coalition prepares to assume power, several factors—ranging from leadership decisions and portfolio allocations to coalition dynamics and governance challenges—are shaping the contours of Maharashtra’s political future.
Leadership Dynamics: Devendra Fadnavis’s Ascension
Devendra Fadnavis, a former Chief Minister and the BJP’s key strategist, is widely expected to reclaim the Chief Ministerial position. Senior BJP leaders have unofficially confirmed his candidacy, with the legislature party set to formally elect him as their leader on December 2 or 3. The swearing-in ceremony is scheduled for December 5 at Azad Maidan, Mumbai, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi likely to attend.
Despite Fadnavis’s looming return to power, the transition has not been devoid of complexities. Eknath Shinde, the outgoing Chief Minister, has expressed his full support for the BJP’s decision but remains an influential figure within the Shiv Sena faction. Reports suggest that Shinde has been advocating for his son, Shrikant Shinde, to be appointed as one of the Deputy Chief Ministers—a demand that has sparked internal debates within the coalition.
The Deputy CM Conundrum: Shrikant Shinde’s Speculated Role
Eknath Shinde’s push for his son’s elevation to the position of Deputy Chief Minister has added another layer of intrigue to the coalition’s internal negotiations. Shrikant Shinde, a two-term Member of Parliament, has been positioned as a capable candidate by his father. However, the BJP’s leadership is reportedly cautious about endorsing dynastic politics, wary of potential backlash from within its ranks and among voters.
The Shiv Sena itself appears divided on the issue. Some party members fear that appointing Shrikant Shinde could tarnish their image, particularly given their past criticism of Uddhav Thackeray’s promotion of his son, Aaditya Thackeray. The BJP has sought to strike a balance, reportedly offering Eknath Shinde either a Union Cabinet berth or the Deputy CM role for his son—but not both.
Shiv Sena’s Position: A Balancing Act
The Shiv Sena faction led by Eknath Shinde finds itself in a precarious position. While publicly supporting the BJP’s leadership decisions, internal discussions reflect growing concerns about the party’s diminishing influence in the coalition. Key demands, such as retaining the Home portfolio, underscore the Shiv Sena’s attempts to assert its relevance in the new government.
Shiv Sena leaders have also emphasized the need for equitable power-sharing within the alliance. Some have suggested adopting a “Bihar model,” where a smaller coalition partner holds the Chief Ministerial post, as a way to ensure balance. However, with the BJP’s dominant position following the elections, such proposals appear unlikely to gain traction.
NCP’s Pragmatic Approach
Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction has been more pragmatic in its approach. Several NCP leaders have voiced support for Fadnavis, citing his administrative acumen and ability to manage coalition dynamics. This alignment reflects the NCP’s focus on stability and effective governance, even as it navigates its reduced influence within the alliance.
The NCP’s support for Fadnavis also highlights a strategic shift, as the party seeks to safeguard its interests in a coalition where the BJP wields significant power. Ajit Pawar’s involvement in key decision-making processes, particularly in portfolio allocations, underscores his intent to remain a key player in the government.
Coalition Dynamics: Striking a Delicate Balance
The Mahayuti alliance’s overwhelming electoral mandate masks underlying tensions among its constituents. Portfolio allocations have emerged as a contentious issue, with each party vying for influential ministries. The BJP is expected to secure a majority of the cabinet positions, but demands from the Shiv Sena and NCP for key portfolios like Home, Finance, and Urban Development have intensified negotiations.
Union Home Minister Amit Shah has been instrumental in navigating these discussions, holding meetings with coalition leaders to address power-sharing arrangements and caste dynamics. Shah’s involvement reflects the BJP’s recognition of the need to maintain coalition unity while asserting its leadership.
Governance Challenges: Delivering on Promises
As the Mahayuti alliance prepares to govern, it faces significant challenges in meeting voters’ expectations. The coalition’s campaign was anchored in ambitious welfare schemes, such as the Ladki Bahin Yojana, which promises monthly financial assistance to women. However, the estimated ₹63,000 crore annual cost of such programs raises questions about their fiscal sustainability.
Beyond financial constraints, the new government must navigate Maharashtra’s complex caste dynamics. Recent elections underscored polarization between the Maratha and OBC communities, fueled by ongoing reservation agitations. Addressing these tensions will be critical for maintaining social harmony and political stability.
Efficient governance will also be under scrutiny, with voters expecting tangible outcomes from the coalition’s policies. Ensuring transparency, reducing bureaucratic delays, and tackling corruption will be key to the government’s success.
Opposition’s Role: Maha Vikas Aghadi’s Resurgence
While the Mahayuti alliance enjoys a strong mandate, the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA)—comprising Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena faction, the Congress, and the Sharad Pawar-led NCP—remains a formidable force. Though weakened, the MVA has retained significant influence and could regroup to challenge the ruling coalition’s policies.
The opposition’s ability to capitalize on any missteps by the Mahayuti government will be pivotal in shaping the political discourse in Maharashtra. Issues such as welfare scheme implementation, caste dynamics, and economic management are likely to serve as flashpoints for opposition criticism.
A Critical Juncture for Maharashtra Politics
Maharashtra stands at a critical juncture as the Mahayuti alliance assumes power under Devendra Fadnavis’s likely leadership. The coalition’s ability to navigate internal dynamics, fulfill campaign promises, and address governance challenges will determine its success in the coming years.
While the BJP’s dominant position provides a strong foundation, the coalition’s longevity will depend on its capacity to maintain unity and address the aspirations of its constituents. The political landscape remains fluid, with opportunities and challenges shaping the trajectory of governance in Maharashtra. As the swearing-in ceremony approaches, all eyes are on the Mahayuti alliance to deliver on its promises and steer Maharashtra towards stability and progress.
